In September of last year, the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-27), convening in Mauritius, issued an alarming and precise alert: significant deviations in rainfall were expected across much of the southern African region towards the close of 2023 and throughout 2024. The forecast indicated unusually wet conditions for the Horn of Africa, as well as portions of Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda, posing a substantial flood risk, while the southernmost regions were predicted to endure severe and abnormal drought conditions.  

The forecasts were grounded in the detection of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, characterized by the arrival of warmer waters along the South American equatorial Pacific coast. Commonly referred to as El Niño, the phenomenon influences the entire global climate, and its effects can be predicted with increasing accuracy, as has been proven in recent decades.

To date, the forecasts have proven remarkably precise. Since early November last year, floods in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia have resulted in over 795,000 displacements in Somalia alone. UNHCR reports indicate that in Ethiopia, a significant number of those affected—particularly in the southern and central regions—were already internally displaced due to previous episodes of violence and drought. In Ethiopia’s Somali Region, authorities estimate that hundreds have perished and half a million people have been impacted by the flash floods.

Refugee camps typically bear the brunt of these events. In five Ethiopian settlements, 213,000 Somali refugees faced inadequate access to drinking water, and approximately 1,000 families lost their tents and makeshift shelters. In Kenya, about 25,000 individuals in the Dadaab camps sought refuge in schools within the camps and nearby communities, exacerbating overcrowding and worsening unsanitary conditions.

Regarding drought, the forecasts have similarly proven accurate, with January and February experiencing the lowest rainfall levels in 40 years. In March, Zimbabwe became the third country to declare drought a national disaster, after Malawi and Zambia.

The Zimbabwean government has stated that the country requires $2 billion in aid to address the famine. By February, nearly 9,880 livestock deaths had been reported, with smallholder farmers in the hardest-hit regions facing challenges in feeding their families due to crop failures.

Maize serves as the staple grain for the subsistence of the poorest individuals. Drought in neighboring Malawi and Zambia, key suppliers, has led to the importation of genetically modified maize from South Africa, which is costlier, resulting in soaring prices throughout the food chain. According to the WHO, over 2.7 million Zimbabweans will face food insecurity in 2024.

Furthermore, the drought has compelled many people to resort to unsafe water sources, leading to the first cholera outbreaks announced by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in January. Additionally, the lack of rainfall has impacted electricity production, given Zimbabwe’s heavy reliance on hydropower.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) predicts that El Niño will lead to heightened food assistance requirements throughout 2024 in these countries and other areas such as western Angola, much of the Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Tanzania, the southwestern fringes of Namibia, southwestern South Africa, eastern Botswana, Eswatini and southern Mozambique. Governments in these areas are already implementing measures, and UN agencies are actively working to mitigate the anticipated impacts.

El Niño episodes occur irregularly, usually two to four times every decade, with varying intensity. Significant impacts of El Niño in Africa were observed in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2014-2015. However, it was only during the last two episodes that forecasts were issued with sufficient accuracy, thanks to advancements in climatology and meteorology. In this regard, the projections outlined in the latest IPCC assessment reports (AR5 and AR6) have been realized.

Therefore, advancing the development of early warning services for droughts and floods designed by the World Meteorological Organization is crucial. The Action for Water Adaptation and Resilience (AWARE) initiative introduced these efforts at COP27 in 2022 in Sharm El Sheik to avert these disasters for Africa’s most vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

Notably, President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe has explicitly attributed the disaster to the El Niño phenomenon. Experts view this shift in communication strategy as highly positive because it raises awareness about the significance of climate change and its impacts on all of us. This approach fosters an understanding of the importance of the water cycle. It aims to eliminate any reluctance to explain the scientific basis of climate to the population under the assumption that they may not understand it. This condescending attitude must be eradicated.

Understanding the water cycle is the foundation for empowering marginalized communities to develop essential hydrological knowledge to withstand climate shocks. Our projects in drought-affected regions validate this principle. For instance, in communities facing high water stress and climate vulnerability, like Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh in India, as well as in Tanzanian villages, collaborating with locals to identify water tables and seasonal dependencies fosters knowledge that empowers communities and promotes project ownership and sustainability. This approach has been effective in helping the Chenchu people drill their wells and construct four dams in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Across all these initiatives, we have demonstrated that acquiring water science knowledge is not only feasible but also the most effective means to achieve resilience and sustainability.