Few observers, scientists, and politicians believe the 2030 Agenda will be achieved. Although it was unanimously adopted by all 193 member states of the United Nations in 2015, the balance of their commitment to achieving the 17 SDGs and their 169 associated targets is not as expected.

Compared to the last report, issued in 2019, there has been a noticeable setback in some targets, especially those related to extreme poverty and climate. According to the study’s authors, the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, natural disasters, and rising food prices are responsible for the relative decline.

Compared to 2000, the situation also shows progress regarding unimproved access (from unprotected wells or springs, i.e., not meeting any health requirements), from 748 million in 2000 to almost 300 million in 2022. The progress is significant, but the UN report indicates it has slowed down in the last two years. Complete and safe access to water in households, enjoyed by 5,814 million people in 2022 (73% of the population), has also experienced a sharp slowdown since 2020.

Regarding sanitation and hygiene (target 6.2), the evolution is favorable. However, it is insufficient for open defecation to be eliminated by 2030 and for all women to have equal access to safe facilities. Even in 2022, 5.25% of humanity (more than 418 million) still relieves itself in bushes, watercourses, or their village streets. At the same time, those who enjoy safe services in their homes represent only 56% of the Earth’s inhabitants.

If we go back further and look at progress since the 1990s, when the UN commissioned studies on human well-being with a methodology comparable to today’s, humanity has improved significantly. Globally, there is less violence, pollution, and illiteracy, and extreme poverty (as defined by the World Bank, which, in 2021, was having less than US$2.15 a day) has fallen by 72%, and malnutrition and infant mortality have fallen by 61% and 60% respectively.

However, improvements are very uneven. Famines are not stopping and appearing in areas where they were not common, and life expectancy is declining in some parts of the world. According to the report, food security and progress against extreme poverty have worsened these last two years since a slowdown was detected in 2018. These are warning signs of what could happen if climate inaction and the ups and downs of global food trade persist.

In this sense, the report shows a disturbing deterioration in the targets related to gas emissions. In SDG 12 (responsible production and consumption), target 12.c.1, based on eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, is in evident decline in most of the countries that emit the most; consequently, target 13.2.2 of SDG 13 (climate action), which is the global reduction of greenhouse gases, continues to stagnate with alarming signs that it will not be possible to contain the temperature increase to the 1.5ºC recommended by the IPCC.

Another document, the annual report of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), also sounds the alarm bells with obvious numbers: of the 169 goals of the 2030 Agenda, only 20% are on track to be achieved; two out of three are not progressing, and one out of seven is in sharp regression.

When forecasting a future in which the SDGs could be fully achieved, we must consider that social, economic, and political complexity has increased, and the global scenario has changed radically. There is now a different climate, wars, and a different type of violence than 30 years ago, and the evidence that we are surpassing climatic and environmental points of no return leads us into an uncertainty certified by science.

In New York, Guterres pointed the finger of blame and lashed out. He warned of governments’ lack of ambition and the behavior of many large companies that publicly show themselves to favor the fight for climate but continue to act irresponsibly. The UN chief even accused them of trying to block the transition to an emission-free world by “distracting and misleading.”

The aim of the climate meeting organized by the UN was to prepare a joint approach among governments and to intensify international awareness in the run-up to COP 28, to be held in December in Dubai. Many call it the most important conference for the future of humanity, as most scientists see little chance of reversing the climate situation, which is one of the factors most likely to impact the full achievement of the SDGs negatively.

In recent years, the value and philosophy of the COPs and the 2030 Agenda have been questioned and attacked by a reactionary sector of society. Guterres states, “The greatest threat to the SDGs comes not from these attacks but from the neglect of those who supposedly defend them.”